The ATP’s second main of the 12 months is lastly right here, with the French Open at Roland Garros beginning Sunday. This 12 months’s model will look very completely different with the absence of the King of Clay, Rafael Nadal. Rafa introduced final week that not solely would he be skipping out on his most profitable match (14 titles), however that he’ll step away from the sport with hopes of returning in 2024.
With Nadal out, this opens the door to a doable new champion. Here’s a preview and decide to win the 2023 males’s French Open.
Carlos Alcaraz (+165)
Novak Djokovic (+260)
Daniil Medvedev (+700)
Holger Rune (+750)
Jannik Sinner (+1100)
Casper Ruud (+1400)
The floor and format
Roland Garros is a clay-court match performed in a best-of-five-sets format. Expect loads of breaks of serves and breaks again. As of now, climate situations look to be stable with hotter temperatures and no rain or wind for no less than the early rounds.
The greater issue: finest of 5 units. It takes a robust mindset to excel in majors. If a participant is down two units, does he have the psychological fortitude to combat again and go a full 5 with Djokovic or Alcaraz? If a participant is up two units, can he maintain the aggression to shut it out in three or at worst in 4? Winning a serious takes grit, aggression, creativity, stamina and psychological toughness.
Carlos Alcaraz returns the ball throughout the Italian Open in Rome on Monday, May 15, 2023. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini)
The backside half of the draw
Medvedev, Sinner, Ruud or Rune is the most definitely winner of the underside half of the draw.
Medvedev may like clay now after profitable the Italian Open over Rune, 20, in straight units. The situations — chilly and wet, which muted the ball’s bounce — have been favorable for Medvedev to excel. Cooler temperatures allowed the ball to be extra flat and gradual, which in the end favored the higher baseliner. The finest baseline participant proper now’s Medvedev. So far, it’s not seeking to be chilly and wet in Paris however fairly heat and sunny. Medvedev does have a positive draw, nevertheless. Betting Medvedev to win his quarter is a greater possibility than to win Roland Garros.
After profitable ATP Masters 1000 Paris in early November by defeating Djokovic within the remaining, Rune has since reached the ultimate at ATP Masters Monte-Carlo and gained ATP 250 Munich final month. His fashion of play is beginning to resemble that of Djokovic’s: an incredible returner who is robust from the baseline, with an influence forehand and a killer drop shot. Plus, he has pace and stamina to maintain a baseline sport.
As to who will attain the ultimate from the underside half of the draw? It’s powerful to foretell. It’s broad open.
Sinner might be the disruptor as a result of his tempo and topspin motion shall be even stronger within the heat and sunny situations. If Sinner will get via his quarter, then he’ll most definitely face Rune within the semifinal.
The prime half of the draw
This ought to be known as, “Why Carlos Alcaraz will win the 2023 French Open.”
You see each Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic and assume, “Alcaraz has a troublesome draw.” If he desires to win, Alcaraz can have to take action going up towards among the strongest clay gamers round. I nonetheless like his possibilities.
Alcaraz is firing at his peak. While Djokovic is the GOAT (in my view), I’m suspicious of his present bodily type and rhythm. Djoker simply hasn’t been in “dominate the whole lot” type proper now. The area is catching up, and Djokovic shouldn’t be enjoying his finest whereas additionally coping with accidents to his hamstring and elbow.
I don’t fear about Tsitsipas as a result of he’s simply not a robust opponent at this level in his profession. His backhand remains to be a weak point and it usually will get uncovered, and Tsitsipas just lately parted methods together with his coach. Either gamers are determining his sport, or he simply doesn’t have the skillset to interrupt via proper now.
Alcaraz did lose in straight units to a qualifier in Rome, however he gained three of his final 4 tournaments earlier than that. It’s not a shocking loss after a profitable streak proper earlier than a serious.
Best guess: Carlos Alcaraz to win the French Open
This is Alcaraz’s third Roland Garros primary draw however simply his second enjoying without having to qualify. Alcaraz has way more expertise now, is 4-0 this 12 months towards top-10 opponents and 20-2 on clay. He has the instruments, mindset and expertise to win his second main.
