Eric Bieniemy, who has been the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive coordinator since 2018, has reportedly interviewed for 14 head-coaching jobs. Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
Boldly going the place no NFL coach has gone earlier than, not too long ago fired Miami Dolphins head coach Brian Flores put his future profession at stake and filed a class-action lawsuit in opposition to the league, the New York Giants, the Denver Broncos and the Dolphins, alleging discriminatory hiring practices amongst workforce house owners.
Coincidentally, a research I started engaged on within the spring of 2020 was printed on-line within the Review of Black Political Economy mere hours earlier than Flores’ lawsuit went public. My colleagues and I used information on all NFL offensive and defensive coordinators because the 2003 introduction of the Rooney Rule, which required all NFL groups to interview not less than one minority candidate for vacant head-coaching jobs.
We needed to find out what elements have been correlated with a coordinator’s chance of turning into a head coach. Our outcomes recognized many elements which have impacted a coordinator’s possibilities of touchdown a head-coaching job. One of these elements was the coordinator’s race.
The research pays particular consideration to the case of Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who’s Black.
Before Flores’ lawsuit was filed, Bieniemy had largely been the face of the dialogue surrounding Black soccer coaches. What makes his case significantly attention-grabbing is the truth that two of his predecessors, who’re each white, have been rapidly promoted to head-coaching gigs.
Many within the media have recommended that Bieniemy’s lack of head-coaching alternatives may be attributed to racism. In our research, we needed to see if there was any validity to this declare.
A useless department in Andy Reid’s teaching tree
When Andy Reid grew to become head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013, his offensive coordinator was former NFL quarterback Doug Pederson, who’s white. At the conclusion of the 2015 season, Pederson grew to become head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Doug Pederson gained the Super Bowl in his second season as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Pederson’s alternative for the 2016 season was former Minnesota Vikings head coach Brad Childress. In 2017, Childress remained with the Chiefs as assistant head coach, and Matt Nagy, who’s white, was promoted from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator. After just one season as Chiefs offensive coordinator, Nagy accepted a head-coaching provide from the Chicago Bears.
Nagy’s alternative was Bieniemy. During Bieniemy’s tenure, the Chiefs have reached 4 straight AFC Championship video games and two Super Bowls.
Using the easy score system metric supplied by Pro-Football-Reference.com, the Chiefs’ worst offensive efficiency beneath Bieniemy’s tutelage was higher than any season for Pederson or Nagy. Yet Bieniemy, who was as soon as once more handed over on this yr’s hiring cycle, nonetheless awaits his first head-coaching alternative regardless of reportedly interviewing for 15 such positions as of February 2022.
What NFL house owners like in a coach
We collected information on all 267 NFL coordinators between 2003 and 2020.
In addition to race, our mannequin accounts for a coordinator’s age; their years of expertise as a coordinator; their years of NFL enjoying expertise; what place they performed in faculty; what positions they coached within the NFL; whether or not they had NFL or faculty head-coaching expertise; whether or not they have been an offensive or defensive coordinator; whether or not they have been teaching beneath an offensive- or defensive-minded head coach; and their efficiency as a coordinator. The mannequin additionally controls for the variety of head-coaching vacancies every offseason.
Our analysis revealed a number of potential causes for why Bieniemy has but to safe a job as a head coach within the NFL.
One may should do with the place Bieniemy performed and coached previous to turning into Chiefs offensive coordinator: working again. NFL house owners appear to devalue expertise enjoying or teaching this place of their head coaches. Of the 32 head coaches to start the 2021 NFL season, none have been former working backs. Excluding special-teams positions, working again was the one place not performed by not less than one head coach for the 2021 season.
Pederson and Nagy are each former quarterbacks, which is a background NFL house owners do worth in head coaches. In truth, 12 head coaches in 2021 have been former quarterbacks. Our mannequin reveals that having performed quarterback in faculty will increase a coordinator’s chance of turning into a head coach by almost 10%.
Two strands of racial bias
At the identical time, our analysis means that, even if you management for elements like earlier enjoying and training expertise, Bieniemy’s race could have restricted his head-coaching alternatives.
First, we discovered a statistically vital distinction in how NFL enjoying expertise impacts the chance of turning into a head coach for Black and non-Black coordinators.
Both Black and non-Black coordinators profit from having performed within the NFL. However, non-Black coordinators profit extra. Each extra yr of NFL enjoying expertise will increase a non-Black coordinator’s chance of turning into a head coach greater than a Black coordinator’s chance.
Second, our analysis discovered that Black coordinators have been merely much less prone to be promoted to go coach between 2018 and 2020. However, there was no such proof of this between 2003 and 2017.
These two findings – that Black coordinators have been much less prone to be promoted since 2018 and that Black coordinators profit much less from NFL enjoying expertise – aren’t concrete proof that NFL house owners are discriminating in opposition to Black coordinators. Concrete proof would require us to know and account for each attribute that house owners take into account when deciding who to rent as their head coach. This isn’t attainable.
However, the findings are “per discrimination” in opposition to Black coordinators. In different phrases, if house owners are discriminating in opposition to Black assistants, you’ll count on outcomes just like ours.
Using our mannequin, we calculate that Bieniemy’s chance of promotion in 2020 would have elevated from 42.5% to 57.2% if his race weren’t Black.
Race issues after controlling for different elements
A typical purpose given for Bieniemy’s – and different Black coaches’ – lack of head-coaching alternatives is a dearth of Black coaches who’ve expertise enjoying or teaching the quarterback place. Black quarterbacks have gotten extra widespread within the NFL, however for a very long time, that wasn’t the case. In a 2013 research, I discovered that Black highschool quarterbacks have been considerably extra prone to change positions in faculty than white highschool quarterbacks. It’s possible that this segregation on the QB place has had a ripple impact that extends into the teaching ranks.
Others attribute the Chiefs’ offensive success to Reid, who has a fame as an offensive guru. Yet it is a perception that former offensive coordinators Pederson and Nagy would have additionally needed to overcome to get their head-coaching gigs.
Our research did reveal that lots of the widespread causes given for Bieniemy’s lack of head-coaching alternatives are possible true. Being an offensive coordinator beneath an offensive guru, being a former working again and having solely been a working backs coach within the NFL earlier than turning into an offensive coordinator have all contributed to Bieniemy’s struggles in turning into a head coach.
However, in our mannequin, even after controlling for every of those elements, and extra, we nonetheless discover that Black coordinators have been much less prone to be promoted since 2018. And whereas some have recommended that Bieniemy may merely be a poor interviewer, for that to clarify our outcomes, all Black coordinators must have all of a sudden develop into poor interviewers starting in 2018.
In the case of Bieniemy, our findings recommend his race just isn’t the one purpose he has but to safe a head-coaching job. But it’s possible one of many causes.
In the wake of Flores’ lawsuit, the accused have been fast to explain Flores’ allegations as “disturbing,” “blatantly false” and “malicious.”
Our analysis is per a distinct description of Flores’ allegation of discrimination: true.
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Joshua D. Pitts doesn’t work for, seek the advice of, personal shares in or obtain funding from any firm or group that will profit from this text, and has disclosed no related affiliations past their educational appointment.
