It’s been a very unbelievable begin to the NFL playoffs by two days. Of the 5 video games we have seen thus far, solely certainly one of them ended up in a blowout. However, the ultimate margin in San Francisco’s win over Seattle wasn’t precisely reflective of the sport. Seattle led at halftime and was inside a rating getting into the fourth quarter earlier than issues fell aside. Outside of that sport, we noticed miraculous comebacks, underdogs pulling off outright upsets and large favorites being pushed to the brink.
Wild card weekend wraps up on Monday with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers enjoying host to the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is a 2.5-point street favourite. Before that sport, let’s have a look again at a wild weekend from a betting perspective.
Overs go excellent 5-0
During the NFL common season, unders went 149-119-3, which was good for a 55.6% win charge. It was an especially low scoring season as oddsmakers continued to regulate totals downward, however unders nonetheless managed to money most of the time.
Playoff soccer has a repute of being a special model of soccer. Games are often tighter, groups run the ball extra, defenses are extra bodily and the climate is colder. However, for those who anticipated the development of low scoring video games to switch over from the common season, you had a tough weekend.
Under bettors have gone 0-5 to open the NFL playoffs as all 5 video games so far have gone over the full. Outside of the sport between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens, it hasn’t been significantly shut both. The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks mixed for 64 factors regardless of the full closing at simply 42 factors. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers went 14 factors over the closing whole of 61. Buffalo and Miami mixed for 65 factors regardless of the full closing at 43.5 factors.
A variety of quarterbacks carried out higher than anticipated. Brock Purdy threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns in his playoff debut. Geno Smith threw for 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns in opposition to the robust San Francisco protection. Trevor Lawrence rebounded from throwing 4 early interceptions by throwing 4 touchdowns. Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins someway hung 31 factors on the board. Daniel Jones had practically 400 all objective yards. Even Tyler Huntley was higher than most individuals anticipated.
It’s been a tough season for bettors who lean in direction of betting overs. They lastly had their breakthrough on the most important stage.
Daniel Jones and the New York Giants pulled off the outright victory as an underdog on the opening weekend of the NFL playoffs. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
Underdogs have good displaying
Much like underneath bettors, bettors who facet with the underdog had a really profitable common season. Underdogs went 141-118-8 throughout the season, cashing for bettors at a strong 54.4% charge. However, not like underneath bettors, underdog bettors noticed their success carry over into the postseason.
Underdogs went 4-1 in opposition to the unfold on the primary weekend of the NFL playoffs. Two of these underdogs received outright.
The solely favourite to cowl the unfold was the San Francisco 49ers. However, it wasn’t a easy trip. The 49ers went up 10-0 within the first quarter, and it regarded like Seattle was in over their skis. However, the Seahawks settled down and truly took a 17-16 lead into halftime. Entering the fourth quarter, San Francisco was up simply 23-16. Ultimately, the 49ers went on an 18-0 run within the fourth quarter to open up an enormous lead and make sure the cowl.
In the Saturday night time sport, the Jacksonville Jaguars closed as 2.5-point underdogs. After 4 early interceptions from Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars fell behind 27-0. Jacksonville was 18-to-1 to comeback and win the sport on the stay moneyline. That’s precisely what they did, outscoring the Los Angeles Chargers 31-3 within the last half-hour and 30 seconds of the sport.
On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills opened up an early 17-0 lead and it regarded like they had been going to roll as 13.5-point favorites. At BetMGM, 85% of bets and 91% of the cash was backing the Bills to cowl. However, a sequence of drops, turnovers and errors let Miami proper again into the sport. The Dolphins tied it up quickly proper earlier than halftime after which hung across the entirety of the second half. Buffalo received the win, however nowhere close to convincingly sufficient for his or her backers.
The New York Giants had been 3-point underdogs on the street in opposition to the Minnesota Vikings however cashed as a +135 underdog on the moneyline for his or her backers. New York took an early 17-7 lead however Minnesota evened the rating at 24 within the fourth quarter. Saquon Barkley scored the eventual game-winning landing because the Giants pulled off the outright upset.
In the night time sport, Joe Burrow carried his excellent 4-0 in opposition to the unfold playoff report into battle in opposition to the Baltimore Ravens. Cincinnati closed as an 8.5-point favourite with 75% of bets backing the Bengals. Cincinnati opened up an early 9-0 lead however Baltimore hung round. With the sport tied at 17 within the fourth quarter, it regarded like Baltimore was getting into to take the lead. However, Tyler Huntley fumbled the ball attempting to increase it over the purpose line and Sam Hubbard returned the fumble 98 yards for a Bengals’ landing. That ended up being the ultimate rating. Cincinnati received, however Baltimore lined. Joe Burrow dropped to 4-1 in opposition to the unfold in his NFL playoff profession.
Young quarterbacks buck the development
Entering Sunday, quarterbacks making their first profession playoff begin in opposition to a quarterback with earlier playoff expertise struggled mightily. Since 2002, younger quarterbacks in that place had gone simply 17-36-1 in opposition to the unfold together with an 0-3 displaying final season.
In all three video games on Sunday, this example was in play. Skylar Thompson was making his playoff debut in opposition to the skilled Josh Allen. Daniel Jones was getting his first playoff begin in opposition to the veteran Kirk Cousins. Tyler Huntley was thrust into his first playoff motion in opposition to reigning AFC champion Joe Burrow.
However, younger quarterbacks bucked the development this 12 months. All three neophyte quarterbacks lined the unfold and Jones and the Giants even pulled off the outright upset as an underdog. Thompson and Huntley lined the unfold in dropping efforts.
Chalky first TD weekend, besides one unhealthy beat
If you want fast motion, betting on the primary landing scorer might be proper up your alley. The payouts are increased and also you get your consequence relatively shortly. It’s one of many extra common props for each NFL sport, particularly in primetime video games.
The weekend received off to a relatively chalky begin. Christian McCaffrey scored the primary landing within the Seattle-San Francisco sport. He was a +250 favourite. Austin Ekeler kicked issues off on Saturday night time. Once once more, one other chalky choose as he is been residing ultimately zone for the final two seasons. Ekeler was +500.
Dawson Knox was a little bit of a protracted shot to attain the primary landing within the Bills-Dolphins sport at 11-to-1. However, Knox has been on a landing heater and has now scored in 5 straight video games. It wasn’t a shocking consequence and the percentages weren’t something loopy. In the Sunday night time sport, Ja’Marr Chase, one of many league’s high receivers, scored the primary landing and cashed at +600 odds.
However, what occurred within the Giants-Vikings sport undoubtedly resulted in some wild swings. Minnesota received the ball first and drove down the sector. Kirk Cousins discovered Justin Jefferson on a fast route and Jefferson turned up area and reached the ball in direction of the purpose line whereas getting tackled. On the sector, it was dominated that Jefferson scored. Jefferson is arguably the very best receiver in soccer and was definitely a well-liked guess to attain the primary landing at +700.
However, replay reviewed the play and decided that Jefferson was down simply contained in the one yard line. On the following play, Kirk Cousins scored through quarterback sneak. Cousins scored simply two speeding touchdowns this season and has simply six touchdowns within the final 5 seasons. He was 40-to-1 to attain the primary landing of the sport.
I’m positive quite a bit fewer folks had Cousins scoring the primary landing in comparison with Jefferson. It was a foul beat for Jefferson bettors. However, for those who lucked out by cashing a Kirk Cousins ticket at 40-to-1, it was day.
Bills first half was a horrid beat
The Buffalo Bills had been massive favorites to beat the Miami Dolphins. They had been additionally anticipated to get off to a sizzling begin. Buffalo was favored to win the primary half by 7.5 factors at BetMGM.
Things received off to an amazing begin for Buffalo. Dawson Knox and James Cook discovered the top zone to open up an early 14-0 lead. Then, it regarded like Knox had his second landing of the sport to open up a 21-0 lead. However, after overview, it was dominated that Knox did not safe the catch. Buffalo needed to accept a area purpose, however they had been nonetheless up 17-0. If you had them to win the primary half by at the very least eight factors, you needed to be feeling good.
On the following kickoff, Tyler Bass kicked off out of bounds, giving Miami a brief area. The protection regarded prefer it was going to carry, forcing a Third-and-19. However, Miami transformed that with a play to Tyreek Hill. Miami finally settled for a area purpose to chop the result in 17-3. On Buffalo’s subsequent possession, Josh Allen tried going deep to John Brown. Xavien Howard intercepted the ball contained in the 5 yard line and returned it previous midfield.
The Bills’ protection as soon as once more stepped up, forcing a 4th-and-8. Miami stored the offense on the sector and threw a cross to Jeff Wilson Jr. behind the road of scrimmage. Wilson compelled a couple of folks to overlook and someway picked up the primary down. Miami finally settled for an additional area purpose, reducing the result in 17-6.
On Buffalo’s ensuing drive, it regarded like Allen discovered Khalil Shakir for a 54-yard acquire on third down. However, as soon as once more, replay took the catch off the board as Shakir did not survive the bottom. Buffalo punted and the Dolphins returned the punt to midfield. With 1:15 left within the first half, the Dolphins kicked their third area purpose to chop the result in 17-9.
It wasn’t an amazing finish to the primary half for the Bills, however they had been nonetheless up by eight factors and protecting the primary half unfold. They had the ball with simply over a minute left. If they did not rating, on the very least, they need to be capable of run out the clock and head to halftime up eight.
Not so quick. Allen threw one other interception that was returned contained in the purple zone. Skylar Thompson discovered Mike Gesicki for a landing. A two-point conversion to Tyreek Hill was profitable. Suddenly, the sport was tied.
Buffalo kicked a area purpose earlier than halftime to regain the lead, nevertheless it wasn’t sufficient for bettors who backed them on the primary half unfold. The harm was carried out.
James Cook speeding prop was a wild trip and unhealthy beat
Over the previous few weeks of the common season, rookie operating again James Cook was carving out extra of a job within the Buffalo offense. On Sunday, Cook scored a speeding landing and continued to be very concerned. However, for those who guess on Cook to go over 39.5 speeding yards, the second half was a tough expertise.
On his seventh carry of the sport, Cook picked up two yards to go from 38 yards to 40 yards and subsequently presumably cashing the over. However, it is by no means that straightforward.
On his subsequent rush, Josh Allen seemingly ran the mistaken play. It regarded like Allen was supposed to maintain the ball as the road was blocking in a single path. Instead, he handed it off to Cook heading the other way, the place he was tackled by an unblocked defender for a lack of 5 yards. Suddenly, Cook was again right down to 35 yards.
On his subsequent two carries, Cook gained six yards to get again as much as 41 yards. The over was again to the profitable facet. On his eleventh carry of the sport, Cook misplaced a yard. Back right down to 40, however nonetheless on the precise facet. Then, with just a bit over two minutes left, Cook received the ball attempting to expire the clock. He was instantly stuffed for a lack of a yard.
The Bills pivoted to Devin Singletary for the remainder of the sport, and Cook completed the sport with 39 speeding yards. In the second half, he went over, again underneath, again over, after which again underneath. His final carry of the sport took him from cashing the over to a heartbreaking underneath.
Two 99% props lose
Two prop bets at BetMGM this weekend had 99% of the betting motion siding with the over. Both props misplaced.
On Saturday, 99% of the motion was backing Keenan Allen to go over 6.5 receptions. He had 13 targets however completed with simply six receptions. The most blatant miss was Justin Herbert overthrowing a large open Allen ultimately zone. Not solely did this miss price Allen prop bettors, nevertheless it very properly may have price the Chargers the sport.
On Sunday, bettors pivoted to Mr. Reliable himself. At BetMGM, 99% of bets had been backing Justin Tucker to go over 1.5 area objectives made. It made sense. Most anticipated Tyler Huntley to wrestle shifting the ball, and with Baltimore’s anticipated want for factors, we all know Tucker’s vary is over 60 yards.
However, Tucker had only one area purpose try. Baltimore went for it on fourth down a couple of instances. They capped two drives off ultimately zone. Of course, if Huntley did not fumble within the fourth quarter, there is a good probability Tucker would have been known as on to present Baltimore the lead.
It wasn’t meant to be. Even essentially the most dependable participant within the sport could not get the job carried out for bettors.