Missouri picked up a blowout win within the first leg of its two-game street journey on Saturday, defeating Georgia, 85-63.
The Tigers are a close to lock to make the NCAA event, even when they lose their remaining two video games of the common season. Bracket Project’s matrix had Mizzou included in all 97 forecasts on Tuesday, the crew listed as excessive as a No. 5 seed and as little as a No. 10 seed, averaging out as an 8.30 seed.
The discrepancy in the place Missouri must be seeded comes from the gulf between resume and predictive metrics. The Tigers have the 18th-best power of report score, with 5 Quad 1 wins an undefeated 16-0 report in opposition to Quad 2-4 opponents. But the crew sits on the perimeter of the highest 50 in each KenPom’s scores and the NCAA’s NET rankings.
The 22-point win over the Bulldogs helped enhance Mizzou’s predictive metrics a bit, leaping from 62nd to 53rd on KenPom and from 51st to forty ninth within the NET. Playing in the identical dominant trend in opposition to a crew like LSU received’t transfer the needle a lot when it comes to power of report, however may assist achieve floor within the predictive metrics.
Missouri beat LSU in its first assembly on Feb. 1 inside Mizzou Arena, 87-77. LSU trailed by 13 at halftime however outscored the hosts 42-39 within the second half. LSU has gone 1-6 since then, their solely victory coming at residence in opposition to Vanderbilt. With this week’s matchup being LSU’s final residence recreation of the 12 months, MU head coach Dennis Gates mentioned he expects LSU head coach Matt McMahon to have his gamers competing at their absolute best.
“They usually are not what their report says they’re. You know, they’ve some nice, dynamic items and so they have a mode that I believe could cause points,” Gates mentioned. “They do an incredible job. They can shoot the ball, they’ve a dynamic shooter, guys that may drive, guys they will get to the free throw line and, clearly, guys that they will feed the ball to.”
TIP TIME INFORMATION
Missouri (21-8, 9-7 SEC) at LSU (13-16, 2-14)
WHEN: 8 p.m. CT
WHERE: Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
TV: SEC Network
SERIES: LSU leads, 11-3
KENPOM PREDICTION: Missouri 79, LSU 75
PROJECTED STARTERS
BY THE NUMBERS
BEST LINEUP OF THE LAST 5 OUTINGS (PER CBB ANALYTICS)
Nick Honor-Tre Gomillion-D’Moi Hodge-Noah Carter-Aidan Shaw
Minutes performed: 6
Offensive score: 140.3
Defensive score: 54.0
Net score: +86.3
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Hold off Okay.J. Williams. The senior ahead was his crew’s main scorer in his first assembly with Mizzou, posting 15 factors on 6-10 taking pictures from the sphere. However, Williams was within the midst of a little bit of a taking pictures hunch on the time. From Jan. 7 to Feb. 4, Missouri was the one crew he’d shot above 50% from the sphere in opposition to. He’s since returned to type, taking pictures above 50% in three of his final 4 video games. Williams scorched Vanderbilt in an 84-77 win final week, going 5-10 from the 3-point line and dropping 35 factors, tying his season excessive. He had one other 29 factors on Saturday in an 82-69 loss to Ole Miss. For Mizzou to come back out on high by a cushty margin, it has to maintain Williams from taking up the sport.
2. Prepare for putbacks. LSU is above common on the offensive glass, securing 30.5% of obtainable misses in accordance with KenPom. The crew leveraged its benefit in its first recreation in opposition to Missouri, scoring 18 second-chance factors off of 15 offensive rebounds whereas holding the midwest Tigers to seven second-chance factors off 5 offensive rebounds. Williams and junior ahead Derek Fountain led the way in which, grabbing a mixed 10 offensive rebounds. Per CBB Analytics, LSU makes an attempt 4.8 putback discipline targets per recreation, which ranks seventeenth within the nation. The crew isn’t all that environment friendly with its additional alternatives, making simply 56.1% of its putbacks. But Mizzou’s focus must be boxing out and limiting the quantity of second probabilities LSU receives.
3. Keep a hand up above the break. LSU isn’t an incredible taking pictures crew, making 33.0% of its pictures from past the arc. But the crew is considerably higher when taking pictures 3s wherever however the corners — in accordance with CBB Analytics, above-the-break triples make up 29.8% of LSU’s discipline purpose makes an attempt this season, the place they’ve cashed in at a 34.2% clip. Those numbers have crept up over the previous 5 video games, with LSU making 36.4% of its above-the-break treys and 31.3% of its pictures coming from there. The crew isn’t almost nearly as good from the corners, the place it made simply 30.5% of its 3-pointers. To hold the southern Tigers from protecting tempo on offense, Missouri might want to gradual them down from outdoors.
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