There is not a lot precedent for a participant like Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis.
Heading into final week’s NFL draft, the betting odds had Levis because the second-likeliest participant to be picked No. 1. But after a prolonged keep backstage Thursday night time, Levis fell out of the primary spherical. On Friday, the Titans traded as much as No. 33 to choose Levis, ending the quarterback’s free fall with the second choose within the second spherical.
Such disparity is nearly unparalleled within the trendy NFL. Sure, quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Brady Quinn and Lamar Jackson had lengthy waits within the inexperienced room earlier than listening to their names referred to as in Round 1. But a projected first-round passer virtually by no means falls to Round 2.
DRAFT GRADES: Tennessee Titans’ ultimate 2023 NFL Draft grades are in: Did they go or fail?
ANY NEW STARTERS? Projecting the place Will Levis, Tennessee Titans NFL draft picks shall be on 2023 depth chart
LIFE STORY: Peter Skoronski was the one participant to say no NFL draft invite. His life story explains why
From 2012 to 2022, ESPN NFL draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. solely incorrectly mocked a quarterback within the first spherical one time, Drew Lock in 2019. The scouting website Walter Football has complete reviews on each draft-eligible quarterback relationship again to 2010, and solely three passers with true first-round grades fell into the second spherical: Lock, Geno Smith (2013) and Jimmy Clausen (2010).
The level right here is there’s not a lot precedent for a way prospects like Levis end up. But trendy historical past does lend us some hints as to how Levis shall be handled as a rookie.
Here’s what NFL historical past says about how Levis might end up:
Generally, 2nd-round QBs have not been superb
Since 2006, 38.6% of all gamers picked within the first spherical and 18.7% of gamers picked within the second spherical have made at the least one Pro Bowl. Among quarterbacks, these percentages keep comparable. First-round quarterbacks have grown into Pro Bowlers 44% of the time, in comparison with simply 20% of the time for second-rounders.
Story continues
In the final 20 years, the one actually good second-round quarterback picks have been Jalen Hurts (2020), Derek Carr (2014) and Andy Dalton (2011). Smith finally developed into a very good quarterback, however not for the staff that picked him. The similar arguably might be mentioned for Jimmy Garoppolo, who parlayed two begins in six appearances in 2016 right into a beginning state of affairs in San Francisco. But past these 5, the perfect second-round passers since 2002 have been Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick and Tarvaris Jackson.
Some of the lowlights of the group embody Christian Hackenberg and Pat White, two gamers who by no means began an NFL recreation, in addition to busts like DeShone Kizer, Brock Osweiler and Clausen.
LOVE STORY: Will Levis picked by Tennessee Titans, the one staff he fell in love with earlier than NFL draft
Getting an opportunity to sit down and be taught works … typically
Levis ought to have the prospect to again up veteran Ryan Tannehill as a rookie, a luxurious most big-name rookies haven’t got. But not essentially a luxurious that correlates to something.
From 2013-22, 33 quarterbacks have been chosen within the high 50. Twelve began Week 1 as rookies and 12 extra started as backups however began at the least half of their staff’s video games — or would have had it not been for damage.
That leaves simply 9 top-50 quarterbacks within the final decade who weren’t requested to steer their staff as rookies. From that pattern, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff have received MVPs, and Mahomes and Goff have performed within the Super Bowl. But there are additionally colossal disappointments like Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel and Lock who have been on new groups or out of soccer inside three years.
Older QBs have been higher as a rule
Levis is a little bit of a rarity amongst extremely drafted quarterbacks since he spent 5 years in school. Of the 33 quarterbacks talked about above, simply six have been five-year school gamers.
Joe Burrow headlines the group, however Carr, Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield have all led the groups that drafted them to playoff berths. E.J. Manuel is the lone true bust within the bunch, with Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett being too early in his profession to inform.
All of those passers took over their groups early on. Four began Week 1 of their rookies years. The different two, Mayfield and Pickett, took over in Weeks 4 and 5.
So who does Levis most have a resemblance to?
Based on these signifiers (not on-field efficiency), Levis’ path to the NFL most-closely resembles these of Carr and Lock. Carr’s been the NFL’s most efficient second-round quarterback since Drew Brees whereas Lock has struggled with accuracy and turnovers and his beginning days are possible behind him.
Every quarterback is completely different, and having Tannehill to be taught behind as an alternative of getting to determine issues out immediately is a large asset for Levis’ development. But given the dearth of success second-rounders have had just lately and the spotty-at-best observe report of developmental tasks, Levis will nonetheless have to beat rather a lot to blossom into a real star.
Nick Suss is the Titans beat author for The Tennessean. Contact Nick at nsuss@gannett.com. Follow Nick on Twitter @nicksuss.
This article initially appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Can Will Levis star with Tennessee Titans? What NFL draft historical past says
