Every canine has its day. After being the laughingstock of the league for the primary half of the season, Orlando acquired its first win on the very unlikely time, in Week 7 in opposition to the DC Defenders. The 1-6 Guardians rallied again from a 22-12 deficit to shock the beforehand unbeaten Defenders, 37-36, in some of the high-scoring and thrilling video games of the yr. The two groups mixed for 888 yards of offense and 10 complete touchdowns, hovering over the pregame complete of 45.5. It was the sixth time in seven video games Orlando has cashed the over.
Orlando’s has been rather more aggressive since benching Paxton Lynch and turning the offense over to QB Quinten Dormady. The transition occurred mid-game in Week 5, an eventual 35-32 loss to the Vegas Vipers. It’s solely becoming the person whom the Guardians falsely accused of sharing the playbook, and subsequently reduce, finally ends up being the catalyst for the crew’s turnaround. It’s been a downright weird path for each Dormady and the Guardians. A crew that was left for lifeless at 0-6 (and futures odds as excessive as 300 to 1 at some outlets), now finds itself very a lot alive within the playoff image.
Can they realistically catch the (3-4) Arlington Renegades for the South’s second playoff spot? They have an opportunity to tug inside one recreation as they host Arlington this Saturday. Orlando is at present the betting favourite (-1.5) at BetMGM for the primary time this season. Here is why I like their probabilities to maintain the momentum rolling and canopy this quantity.
Arlington Renegades (+1.5) at Orlando Guardians (O/U 42.5)
We took full benefit of the market being too excessive on Arlington early on. That gravy practice has ended, however I nonetheless suppose they’re price fading even on the adjusted score. Back in Week 3, Arlington edged out Orlando, 10-9, after closing as 8-point favorites. Arlington gained the sport, however Orlando gained the field rating. The Guardians outgained the Renegades (+93 yards), gained yards per play (4.5-3.4) and first downs (18-14). Much like each Orlando recreation up till final week, it was the miscues that killed them. Orlando misplaced the turnover battle by two, and dedicated seven extra penalties than Arlington. That was the frequent theme for Orlando by means of the primary six weeks — a tragic comedy of errors, committing 27 extra penalties than its opponents. That ended final week, and after doing what no different XFL crew has executed (defeating DC), no person is laughing anymore. Orlando cleaned up the flags, and put the XFL on discover that it isn’t rolling over.
Both groups will look a lot completely different this time round. Instead of Kyle Sloter and Paxton Lynch, we’re getting Luis Perez versus Quinten Dormady. Interesting sufficient, Perez was the opposing quarterback for Vegas when Orlando benched Lynch and turned to Dormady just a few weeks in the past. Now a member of the Renegades, he ought to present Arlington the regular, reliable arm they’ve lacked all yr. You ought to see the very best model of the Renegades offense, particularly contemplating Orlando permits the second-most yards and a league-worst 5.7 yards per play.
It’s nonetheless not going to be sufficient to maintain tempo with Orlando. Since Dormady was inserted into the lineup three weeks in the past, the Guardians offense has gained the second-most yards (1,155), trailing DC by a mere 27. They outgained Seattle and St. Louis by over 200 yards, and Houston by greater than 300. It’s robust to argue they aren’t one of many prime offenses within the league heading down the stretch.
Arlington’s protection, alternatively, is likely to be a bit little bit of a paper tiger regardless of permitting solely 17.8 factors per recreation. They have benefitted from a again to again with the worst offense within the league (San Antonio), sandwiched inside video games in opposition to St. Louis and Seattle the place they allowed 24 factors in every recreation. I’d anticipate the Guardians to attain within the 24-28 vary. Considering Arlington has solely scored greater than 15 factors simply as soon as, within the first week of the season thanks to 2 defensive touchdowns, I’m very comfy betting they get outscored by Orlando. The Guardians have lined three straight and 4 of the final 5, whereas Arlington’s is a league-worst 1-6 ATS. The market changes are nonetheless quick, making Arlington a small underdog. That provides us a fantastic alternative to bypass the unfold and play Orlando at an inexpensive moneyline value. The Bet: Orlando Guardians ML -120.
